7837 - wilma update
Oct. 22nd, 2005 11:55 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
scottobear... Headline...
... Hurricane Wilma still over the Yucatan but drifting northward toward the Gulf of Mexico...
... Areas affected...
this statement applies to the following counties in South Florida and the adjacent coastal waters: Collier... Glades... Hendry... Palm Beach... Broward... Miami-Dade and Mainland Monroe.
... New information...
preliminary information on evacuations and shelter openings are included for Hendry... Palm Beach and Broward counties.
... Watches/warnings...
there are no watches or warnings yet in effect for Mainland South Florida. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys and all of Florida Bay. A Hurricane Watch will likely be needed for parts of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon.
... Storm information...
at 11 am EDT... Hurricane Wilma was located near latitude 21.3 north and longitude 87.0 west or about 470 miles southwest of Naples. Wilma is drifting northward and a continued northward motion is expected today. A turn to the northeast toward the Florida Peninsula is expected to begin later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are now 115 mph with higher gusts... making Wilma a category three hurricane on the Saffir Simpson scale.
... Precautionary/preparedness actions...
in Collier County... a mandatory evacuation order has already been issued for residents and visitors south and west of U.S. Highway 41 including Marco Island... Everglades City... and a large part of Naples. This mandatory evacuation should be completed by 8 am EDT Sunday. Shelters will open at 8 am EDT Sunday.
In Hendry County... a voluntary evacuation of Mobile home residents and residents of low lying flood prone areas is recommended. Shelters will be open at 3 PM Sunday.
In Glades County... shelters will be opening Sunday evening. A decision on the extent of the evacuations will be made later today or Sunday.
In Broward County... mandatory evacuation of Mobile home residents will begin at noon Sunday. A minimum of three shelters will open at noon Sunday along with a pet-friendly shelter.
In Palm Beach County... special needs shelters will open at 2 PM EDT Sunday. Regular shelters will open at 6 PM EDT Sunday. A decision on the extent of the evacuations will be made around noon Sunday.
In Mainland Monroe County... Everglades National Park is closed and preliminary evacuation has already been completed at Flamingo.
In Miami-Dade County... Biscayne National Park is closed. Decisions on evacuation recommendations and shelters will be made later today or
Sunday.
Hurricane Wilma is forecast to affect southwest Florida beginning late Sunday night and all of South Florida Monday. However... there is
still considerable uncertainty as far as the intensity... timing... and exact track of Wilma as it approaches the Florida Peninsula. At this stage... residents across South Florida are advised to continue a weather watch and stay abreast of the latest information from the local South Florida Weather Service forecast office and the National Hurricane Center.
This is a good time for residents to go over preparedness plans and restock provisions such as...
batteries for radios and flashlights
drinking water... a gallon per person per day
canned or dried food
first aid supplies
prescription medicine
Cash... because credit cards and atm's may not work without power
fuel for automobiles... generators and chain saws.
When hurricane watches or warnings are issued... that will be the time to rush preparations to completion for the protection of life and property.
... Storm surge flood and storm tide impacts...
at this stage... it is too early to provide detailed information on what the surge impact will be as it is highly dependent on the exact track and intensity of the storm. However... a significant storm surge is likely along the southwest Florida Gulf Coast and in Lake Okeechobee.
... Wind impacts...
at this stage... it is too early to provide detailed information on what the wind impact will be across South Florida as it is highly dependent on the exact track and intensity of the storm. However... winds of at least tropical storm force are expected across all of South Florida on Monday with hurricane force winds likely across parts of South Florida. Extended power outages are likely.
... Probability of hurricane/tropical storm conditions...
factoring in uncertainties in the forecast track... intensity... and size of the storm... there is a 60 to 75 percent chance that Mainland South Florida will experience tropical storm conditions... winds in excess of 39 mph... through Monday. The chance that Mainland South Florida will experience winds in excess of 58 mph is from 30 to 40 percent. The chance that Mainland South Florida will experience hurricane force winds... winds in excess of 73 mph... is from 10 to 20 percent.
... Local marine impacts...
at this stage... it is too early to provide detailed information on what the marine impact will be across South Florida as it is highly dependent on the exact track and intensity of the storm. However... mariners should start making plans to protect marine craft on all coasts allowing plenty of extra line for the expected storm surge especially along the southwest Florida Gulf Coast and Lake Okeechobee.
... Local flood impacts...
storm total rainfall amounts of 7 to 10 inches are expected across parts of South Florida through Tuesday. A Flood Watch will likely be issued later this weekend. However... this is still somewhat uncertain at this time. More detailed information on what the flood impact will be across South Florida will be provided in further updates.
... Local tornado impacts...
tropical cyclones moving into the Florida Peninsula from the Gulf of Mexico have a history of being prolific tornado producers... particularly when interacting with a southward moving cold front. Hurricane Isbell produced at least 13 tornadoes on a path similar to the forecast Wilma path in October 1964. However... this is still highly dependent on storm structure and track as it approaches the peninsula.
