8490 - Stormy Seas - ts-chris-080106

[scottobear]

more info at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml


ts-chris-080106
Originally uploaded by scottobear

WTNT33 KNHC 011149
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
800 AM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS HEADED TOWARD THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES...215 KM...EAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR
NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A MORE
ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF CHRIS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...16.8 N...59.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

Comments

[eryx-uk.livejournal.com]

Another one? Jeez!

[scottobear.livejournal.com]

Well from the latest update -

CHRIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND BE DRIVEN WESTWARD OVER OR SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...OR DISSIPATE COMPLETELY.

So I'm not too worried about it yet.

[mental-circles.livejournal.com]

i feel nauseous anyway. ugh.

will you keep me up to date on this kind of stuff? i avoid it like the plague unless i have to know.

[scottobear.livejournal.com]

Certainly!

How are you set for provisions and such, in case of a power out?

[mental-circles.livejournal.com]

How are you set for provisions and such, in case of a power out?

i think i have three cans of soup....and the new grill still needs to be put together. i do have a book light though, and mom's working on getting weather stripping on the doors. we took on water last time, which is scary as hell in the dark tripping over owens. rather avoid that bit in the future.

[scottobear.livejournal.com]

not a bad start! don'rt forget the hand-crank radio and first aid stuff, too!

[mental-circles.livejournal.com]

oh yeah! we've got the radio and a shake it up so it goes flashlight and i always keep minor first aid stuff on hand (i'm a klutz.)

[scottobear.livejournal.com]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
532 AM EDT TUE AUG 1 2006

FLZ063-066>075-021000-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
532 AM EDT TUE AUG 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FROM INLAND COLLIER COUNTY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND
SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

WIND: SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST MAY PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 OR 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES: HEAT INDICES WILL REACH UP TO 105 TO 110 DEGREES
OVER THE INLAND AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RESULTING IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEME

[scottobear.livejournal.com]

It's August in the tropics, the first of the peak months of hurricane season. Befitting the arrival of August comes the arrival of Tropical Storm Chris, which formed this morning just east of the Leeward Islands. The formation of Chris came in defiance of significant adversity--wind shear was 20-25 knots last night when the storm formed into a tropical depression, and is still a rather hefty 15-20 knots. Considerable dry air lies to Chris' north, and strong upper-level winds from the north are acting to push this dry air into Chris' core, keeping the storm from intensifying much. Radar out of Martinique shows a decent band of thunderstorm to the storm's southeast and east, but no thunderstorm activity on the northwest side where shear and dry air are impacting the storm. We don't have a recent QuikSCAT pass to gauge the winds, but two passes by a satellite equipped with a microwave sensor came up with an estimate of 40 mph surface winds. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to visit at 2pm EDT this afternoon, so we'll know more then.

This shear and dry air will continue to affect Chris over the next two days. The shear is forecast to gradually weaken, which may allow some slow intensification. Chris must tightrope walk a very narrow path between two upper-level cold lows in order to strengthen significantly. One of these cold lows is just north of the Bahamas, and the other is northeast of Chris. These lows are forecast to move slowly west-northwest in tandem with Chris, and if Chris can stay exactly between them, low enough wind shear exists to potentially allow some strengthening. Any deviation from this scenario will put Chris under hostile wind shear, which will act to limit intensification or even dissipate the storm.

Last night's computer model runs did not start out with a very good initial picture of the current strength of Chris, and dissipated the storm within 72 hours. We need to wait until the next set of model runs based on this morning's 8am EDT (12Z) data are available before taking much stock in both the track and intensity forecasts of the models. The NOAA jet is scheduled to fly the storm tonight, so the best model data for Chris will be available Wednesday morning.

Chris will bring heavy rains and high winds to the Leeward Islands today, primarily to those islands lying to the south of the storm's center, where dry and and wind shear are less of a problem. Puerto Rico should get a good soaking on Wednesday, and after that, the prognosis is very uncertain. Chris could become a hurricane late in the week, but chances of this are at 10%. Dissipation is a more likely scenario, since there is so much wind shear around. The most likely scenario of all is that Chris will remain a tropical storm over the next five days.

[scottobear.livejournal.com]

from here - http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=440&tstamp=200608

5pm update -

[scottobear.livejournal.com]

The Hurricane Hunters found much stronger winds than expected in Chris this afternoon. The 2:50 pm EDT eye report indicated a central pressure of 1007 mb, down 2 mb from the most recent advisory. Most surprising were the winds in the southeast quadrant, which were in the 55-60 mph range. Radar out of Guadeloupe shows this intense band thunderstorms rather nicely. The northern side of Chris is still devoid of thunderstorms due to the dry air and wind shear. The storm's appearance on satellite imagery is improved from this morning, and shows the beginnings of a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) feature typical of strong tropical storms. Wind shear has dropped another 5 knots this afternoon, down to 10-20 knots, so some continued strengthening is possible. The latest set of model runs are quite divergent on what Chris might do, and I think we really need to wait until the next set of model runs is in before we can rely on the computer models. Unfortunately, tonight's flight of the NOAA jet was cancelled, so we'll have to wait until Wednesday night for the jet to fly. Most of the computer models are still dissipating Chris by five days from now.

[blackhellkat.livejournal.com]

I dunno if I can take another hurricane season. I'll pray to god, the angels, bigfoot, ufo's, nessie, ghosts or whoever it takes if it would ensure that hurricanes don't hit me and my loved ones this year!

[scottobear.livejournal.com]

Dear Superman, Frosty the Snowman and Thor, god of thunder:

Please don't let us be destroyed... (but let us take a few days off work, witout fear of harm!)

Love, Scotto and Newt.

Amen, Namaste, By Rao, Sufferin' Succotash!

[weezeroni.livejournal.com]

You forgot the Easter Bunny and the Great Pumpkin!!!!

[scottobear.livejournal.com]

they know how I feel. :)

[weezeroni.livejournal.com]

Of course they do :)

[blackhellkat.livejournal.com]

I can't believe you believe in Frosty! He is so a figment :P The Yeti is the "real" snowman---geez!

[scottobear.livejournal.com]

Frosty, the Abominable Snowman!

[blackhellkat.livejournal.com]

Abominable cause he's been 'round too long and his snow ain't too fresh anymore. Pee-yeew!

[scottobear.livejournal.com]

I had a bad abdominal snowman, but he eventually passed out of the system.