8531 - ernesto 082806

[scottobear]

ernesto082806
Originally uploaded by scottobear.

Hmm... looks like wednesday might be a bit more moist than I'd thought!

I'll be interested to see how it develops today. As it is now, I'm at the very top of the pink 'watch' area on te east coast.

Comments

[blackhellkat.livejournal.com]

I'm gonna puke--I don't know if I can handle this.

[scottobear.livejournal.com]

It'll be fine! I've weathered much worse than this.

[blackhellkat.livejournal.com]

I don't want you to have to *weather* anything.

[graypumpkin.livejournal.com]

Now I'm gonna puke. >;)

[blackhellkat.livejournal.com]

GP! Be good :D

[graypumpkin.livejournal.com]

I only like dreaming
All the day long
Where no one is screaming

Be good be good
Be good be good be good
Be good be good be good be good (Gee Pee)

[scottobear.livejournal.com]

You know, I don't think I've ever seen you with anything more than a little sniffle.

[scottobear.livejournal.com]

"Boy, you sure are a funny kid, GP, but I like you! So tell me, what kind of a boy are you, GP?"

[scottobear.livejournal.com]

Ernesto and Florida
The NOAA jet flew last night, and last night's 00Z (8pm EDT) set of model runs have come into much better agreement on a track into South Florida Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Two model runs are available from the latest 6Z (2am EDT) model cycle, and continue the trend of pushing the forecast tracks to the east. The GFS and GFDL models have virtually identical tracks for their 72-hour forecasts, with Ernesto as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds and a pressure of 983 mb when it hits Key Largo Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. This more easterly track is believable given Ernesto's recent northwesterly track.

Wind shear remains low and is forecast to remain low for the duration of Ernesto's life, so the key factor controlling his intensity will be interaction with land. To get an idea of how quickly Ernesto might reintensify once emerging into the Florida Straits, it is helpful to search the historical record. I found two storms similar to Ernesto that crossed the tip of Haiti, hit Cuba as hurricanes, then emerged into the Florida Keys. Hurricane Inez of 1966 hit Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane, then weakened to a tropical storm when she emerged into the Florida Keys. It took three days before she was able to re-intensify into a Category 2 hurricane in the Gulf. The August 1894 Category 2 hurricane that hit Cuba took only one day to re-intensify from a tropical storm into a Category 2 hurricane once it emerged into the Keys. This storm hit Ft. Myers as a Category 2 storm. Dissipation of Erensto is also possible, as happened to a 1916 tropical storm that hit Cuba on a similar track and died as it emerged into the Florida Straits. A 1928 tropical storm following a similar path never regained hurricane strength, despite spending two full days over the Gulf after encountering Cuba. So, history is against Ernesto becoming anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane upon landfall in South Florida, and I believe landfall as a tropical storm is more likely. If Ernesto does take a more westerly track up the west coast of Florida towards Sarasota, landfall as a Category 1 hurricane could occur.

[mental-circles.livejournal.com]

I'm with you. Nausea was my first reaction too.

[scottobear.livejournal.com]

I think that there's very little to worry about so far.. a cat1 or tropical storm strength in our area, if it acts like others that've passed over the areas before it.

got supplies for owen and co.?

[scottobear.livejournal.com]

why do I keep forgetting about skeetobite?

http://skeetobiteweather.com/

[scottobear.livejournal.com]

Expires 6:30 PM EDT on August 28, 2006

Statement as of 12:23 PM EDT on August 28, 2006

... Headline...
... Hurricane Watch extended northward over South Florida...

... Areas affected...
this statement applies to the following locations in South Florida
and the adjacent coastal waters including lake okeechobee: Collier...
Glades... Hendry... Palm Beach... Broward... Miami-Dade and Mainland
Monroe.

... Watches/warnings...
the Hurricane Watch has been extended northward along the East Coast to
include the Palm Beach County waters. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the
entire southeast coast... including Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch remains
in effect from south of Chokoloskee on the southwest Florida Gulf Coast
including the north coast of Florida Bay.

An inland Hurricane Watch has been issued for all of Palm Beach, Hendry, and
Glades counties. An inland hurricane is now in effect for all of Broward, Miami-
Dade, Mainland Monroe, Glades, Hendry and inland Collier counties of Mainland
South Florida.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for western Collier County.

Warnings may be required for parts of Mainland South Florida this afternoon or
tonight. A Flood Watch will also likely be required later today or on Tuesday.

... Storm information...
at 11 am EDT... Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 20.3 north,
longitude 75.7 west or about 475 miles southeast of Miami. Ernesto is
moving northwest near 10 mph and this motion is expected to continue during the
next 24 hours. Maximum sustained wind has decreased to near 40 mph.
Additional weakening is likely as Ernesto moves over eastern Cuba... however
re-strengthening is expected once the center of the storm emerges off
the north coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits.

[blackhellkat.livejournal.com]

How close to the water are you? Or does that even really make a difference when a hurricaine hits FL?

[graypumpkin.livejournal.com]

As an Ex-Floridian I can tell you that it depends on the storm, or more precisely the storm surge, in any case Fl isn't likely to take the kind of flood damage Louisiana did, least not nearly as extensively.
Kat's still in Fl and her parents live on the inter-coastal, but like Scotto, while any storm is potential dangerous, category one is no big deal, mostly it’s just some wind an inconvenience, especially if you loose power.

[blackhellkat.livejournal.com]

Yeah storm surge is what got us MArylanders during Isabel--nasty stuff that!! I totally forgot Kat was still in FL--I hope she is secure and safe---I've got all my fingers and toes crossed this hurricaine season---again.

[scottobear.livejournal.com]

so far, so good!

schools are closed, and tri-rail, but it seems like it'll be pretty basic rain and wind-type stuff.


buses are still runnin' so far!

[mental-circles.livejournal.com]

I'm a good twenty minute drive from the water, but it still gets bad out this way at times.

looks like this one will be pretty mild though*crosses fingers*